If you have visited our Model Library lately, you might have noticed that we have a nice little example model that demonstrates the use of a Markov process to simulate daily rainfall. You need to specify some key statistical inputs that have some basis on historic data. How do you develop these inputs? How do you know if the Markov model is realistic? I thought it would be helpful to show how this simple example might be applied in a real-world project and try to answer those questions.
*Note that I made changes to the results on 5/20/2016 after I used GoldSim's optimization function to better calibrate the rate variability.