Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Statistical Analysis of Streamflow Time Series

Posted by Jason Lillywhite


Using GoldSim's built-in probabilistic simulation capabilities, it is straightforward to perform statistical analysis of time series data. An example model was built and added to our library, which demonstrates how Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze daily time series data of streamflow to produce daily, monthly, and annual statistics. In addition to this, the model finds a best fit probability distribution for these statistics.  
Below are screen captures of the model. This model is using USGS streamflow data from a river gage in the Weber River near Oakley, Utah but you can use this model for any daily streamflow data. Please go here to download and use the model.


The above image is a screen capture of the model's main dashboard showing how your own data can be loaded and analyzed. This page displays the daily time history results along with percentile plots for the daily flow values for all years. From this page, you can navigate to other pages that allow you to view monthly statistics and probability distributions along with how the measured data fits to analytical distributions such as Normal, Gamma, Log Normal, and Log Pearson III distribution types.


The above screen capture shows another dashboard from the model that provides a summary of monthly and annual statistics. These results are captured using built-in functions on the probabilistic results of the model after it simulates all the years on record. These functions are the result of only 6 elements within the model.


For each month and for the year, GoldSim captures a probability distribution from the values of all the years on record. These can be plotted as a probability density function plot (shown in the red lines of the plots above). In addition, the statistical summaries of these can be used to derive an analytical distribution, which is plotted as a green line. This model evaluates how well the empirical distribution fits the shape of the analytical by calculating a correlation coefficient for each month and the year along with a plot showing scatter plots of the paired values between the two. This is shown in the following dashboard:


In the above screen capture, we can see how well the empirical probability distributions fit to the analytical. These plots are produced by sampling from each of the distributions for each month at specified quantiles then plotting the pairs. Rank (Spearman) or value (Pearson) correlation coefficients are calculated and these range between -1 and +1, and express the extent to which there is a linear relationship between the selected result and an input variable. The value correlation coefficient is computed as follows:


Where:


  • Crp= the value correlation coefficient
  • n = the number of selected data points (realizations)
  • pi = value of output p for realization i
  • ri = value of output r for realization i
  • mp = mean value of output p
  • and mr = mean value of output r


The more linear correlation plot shown in the plots of that screen above will indicate a better correlation between the empirical and analytical distribution and therefore provide a guide to make a selection of the fitted distribution. In this model, the analytical distribution is automatically selected based on this correlation coefficients for each month and the year. The following probability distribution types are evaluated: Normal, Gamma, Log Normal, and Log Pearson III.

If you would like to try using this model, please go to our library to download it, here.

If you do not have the GoldSim software, but are interested in trying it out, please visit our website for a trial version.

18 comments:

  1. To know more about the product or you come across any difficulty while going through the given steps, contact Epson Support. Experts will get connected with you and suggest you the best remedy for your query. If this is the case with your printer, don’t worry we can help you to fix this issue. Just make a call at Epson wireless printer setup and follow the necessary steps to make your printer work again smoothly. There guidance will surely help you out in fixing your issue in an efficient manner.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well-explained blog! Writer has described the complete information of Assignment Help in detailed manner. Find all details regarding expert help at assignmenthelpshop to achieve high marks and to boost your academic performance.
    Assignment Help Online
    Online Assignment Help
    Assignment Helper

    ReplyDelete
  3. Very nice!!! This is really good blog information thanks for sharing. We are a reliable third party Quickbooks online backup company, offering technical support for various types of technical errors.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Get Methods to Connect Canon Printer To Wi-Fi From Experts
    For getting printed documents and pictures effortlessly, Canon Printer Offline would be the top-most choice as it offers hands-free printing services to the customers. It has many ultimate features, including its all; you can also print or scan wirelessly with this printing machine. But before do print job wirelessly, you have to Canon printer and also make sure that the required software drivers and applications are installed on the computer system as only then you will be applicable to Canon Wireless Printer Setup. In case, finding any difficulties in order to performing this task, then make a cold conversation to our all day all night presented tech-specialists. Toll-free number is there to unite with us, so call us as soon as possible.
    Canon Wireless Printer Setup
    Connect Canon Printer To Wi-Fi
    Canon printer offline

    ReplyDelete
  5. I am a freelancer and have been helping a lot of students in providing assistance to students who frequently gets worried about their assessment tasks and went online to search for assignment terms. We at My Assignment Services have potentially recognised the need way back and started what we are an enlarged version of then. With many assignment helper companies in the market, no one has quite able to match the standard that we follow. We give utmost priority to students by strictly adhering to the assignment requirements as well as marking rubrics to score high grades. Our help writers are well-proficient in not only comprehending your assessment tasks but also to give an expertise finish to it. Provided a well-written assignment suitable to your needs, your search for write my essay will now end with My Assignment Services. You just have to visit our website for more information.

    ReplyDelete
  6. It is very important to fix the error 0 in protecting the device from threats. Get help from www.mcafee.com/activate for all your mcafee related problems. Toll Free: +1(888) 551-9333 Visit @: mcafee.com/activate
    www.mcafee.com/activate
    install mcafee
    mcafee activate
    download mcafee
    mcafeecomactivate

    ReplyDelete
  7. I suggest everyone to choose Assignment Help Australia for getting the best guidance in their academia. The proficient experts assist as per the requirements and learning styles desired by the university.

    ReplyDelete
  8. They willing to reset the Outlook password, but unfortunately they don’t do it by the own. Hence, at that point those helpless users should give a ring atOutlook Support Phone Number and make connection with top-most technicians.
    Microsoft 365 support
    Office 365 support
    Outlook Support Phone Number
    Microsoft Outlook Support
    Outlook Support

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hello friends, I am Robertjonz working with the Dell Support team for the last 3 years. In any case, if you face problem with your Dell device, then you can easily take help from me or the other experts, who are working with this organization. Our team and I are always ready to offer top-notch solutions to our customers’ queries within a short interval of time.

    For Any printer issue :- Dell Printer Support

    Dell Screenshot issue :- How To Screenshot On Dell

    ReplyDelete
  10. Great post i must say and thanks for the information. I appreciate your post and look forward to more.
    Assignment Help

    ReplyDelete
  11. A very high level post with a knowledgeable information .thanks you for giving me such a nice information. If you need any college level My Assignment Help at reliable quality with better work. Kindly visit Ideal assignment help.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Assignment Help is the best source of providing assistance to those who students who could not complete their due to any reasons. If do so, mark your presence on greatassignmenthelp for affordable services.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Does your HP printer is not functioning as it should be? Is it keeps going offline whenever you give it a print command? Well, you are not alone in this world that is facing this issue. Printer to go offline is quite a common issue, which is faced by nearly everyone. Basically, this error arises, due to the connection error or fault in printer driver. Therefore, instead of shouting Why Does My Hp Printer Keep Going Offline? You need to connect with experts and take proper resolutions to fix this issue once and for all. https://www.hpprintersupportpro.com/blog/stop-my-hp-printer-from-going-offline/

    Why Does My Printer Keep Going Offline
    why does my hp printer keep going offline

    ReplyDelete
  14. Microsoft has revealed a great innovative work in its best version of Windows operating system that is Windows 10 which is the latest launched operating system. You might be having a range of technical problems related to Windows 10, such as- how to obtain latest service pack? How to do disk error checking in Windows 10? How to format and partition a hard disk by using Windows setup program? How to restore and back up the drive? Getting blue-screen on Windows? In case you need any technical help for eradicating those hurdles within a pinch, you can take reliable assistance from Windows 10 Tech Support. You can either call the technical support professionals or contact them by e-mail or chat. Most of your technical hiccups will surely be resolved when you call a toll-free number. Obtaining Windows 10 Support can help you to pinpoint the issue affecting your device.
    microsoft windows 10 support
    windows 10 support
    windows 10 tech support
    Windows 10 Customer Service
    how to fix broken registry items

    ReplyDelete
  15. Examining and learning are not viewed as something very similar. It is an extraordinary inquiry on the best way to feature your insight and understanding degree of the hypothetical issue before the educator.
    my assignment help
    law assignment help

    ReplyDelete
  16. Any issues related to AOL email application like AOL password reset not working , error 101 and more can be rectified in no time by giving a call on our toll free number. AOL email application offers wide range of features and makes user experience full of comfort. If you have forgotten aol password then you should get in touch with our experts who are available 24*7 to provide instant support.

    ReplyDelete