Models are built to better inform decisions. Unfortunately, the numerous disparate outputs of statistical models are often difficult to make sense of for the decision makers and/or stakeholders. Compiling the risk of specific events potentially occurring in the future into a single variable can considerably assist the decision makers into comparing the various trade-offs between different scenarios.
One of our long-time GoldSim users, Simon Chambert of Macroscopia submitted a model to our Model Library that is helpful for those looking for the recurrence interval of an event like a pond overflowing. Both the recurrence interval and exceedence probability are computed and displayed for a given set of input parameters that describe the pond design and constraints. This example can be used for other models that need to compute an annual recurrence interval.
