Annual Recurrence Interval of Reservoir Spills

Posted by Jason Lillywhite

Models are built to better inform decisions. Unfortunately, the numerous disparate outputs of statistical models are often difficult to make sense of for the decision makers and/or stakeholders. Compiling the risk of specific events potentially occurring in the future into a single variable can considerably assist the decision makers into comparing the various trade-offs between different scenarios.

One of our long-time GoldSim users, Simon Chambert of Macroscopia submitted a model to our Model Library that is helpful for those looking for the recurrence interval of an event like a pond overflowing. Both the recurrence interval and exceedence probability are computed and displayed for a given set of input parameters that describe the pond design and constraints. This example can be used for other models that need to compute an annual recurrence interval.

Using GoldSim to Simulate Projects

Posted by Jason Lillywhite

The planning and management of programs and large projects is inherently difficult, not only due to their complexity, but also because something almost always goes wrong (Murphy’s Law!). By combining the flexibility of a general-purpose and highly-graphical probabilistic simulation framework with specialized features to support financial modeling and scenario analysis, GoldSim is ideally suited as a high-level project planning tool suitable during the feasibility assessment and conceptual design phases, while the exact scope of the program is still in flux and it is critical to simulate the range of possible outcomes.

American Water Resources Association 2015 Conference

Posted by Jason Lillywhite

I recently traveled to sunny Los Angeles, California for the AWRA 2015 Specialty Conference: "Water for Urban Areas: Managing Risks and Building Resiliency." All of the presentations I listened to were very interesting, some of which used GoldSim as the tool to facilitate the studies and results presented. The highlight of the trip, of course, was to visit with some of our customers and make new friends. I also learned more about some of the unique challenges California is facing due to continued population growth, climate change, water quality conditions, and aging infrastructures.

Simulating a One-Armed Bandit

Posted by Jason Lillywhite

If you ever run into GoldSim employees in Las Vegas, you will never see them sitting in front of a slot machine. Dealing with probabilities on a daily basis gives us a feel for our odds when dealing with uncertainty. But what if we built a model that only simulates the one-armed bandit? This is the question I asked myself the other day when Rick mentioned the dice-rolling model. What I thought would end up to be a mere exercise in probabilities ended up in a little game that is almost as addicting as solitaire!

Performance, Risk Assessment and Miss Atomic Bomb 1957

Posted by Rick Kossik

I recently attended the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Annual Technical Exchange Meeting in Las Vegas. This group is part of the effort by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management to support risk-informed environmental cleanup and waste management decisions within the DOE complex.  GoldSim has been used throughout the DOE complex for many years, and it was nice to see a number of excellent GoldSim applications discussed during the meeting. As a side note, the meeting was held at a very interesting location - the National Atomic Testing Museum - which is definitely worth a visit the next time you are in Las Vegas and need a break from the Strip!